 Posts: 1808 Joined: 14 Feb 2005     | |
 Posts: 489 Joined: 28 Jul 2004     | There is no debate. It is a 66% for success each time you enchant. BUT...each time you enchant your odds of hitting that 34% failure goes up. Kind of like flipping a coin, you have a 50/50 chance for heads but each time you flip it the odds of hitting tales goes up. This is a fact and there is no BS way of changing it. Not enchanting in a church or mage weapons blow-up easier or whatever crap else there is out there. Its a 66% chance each time. What I do is buy a weapon that is already + and then I enchant it once and resell that way my odds of it going from say +9 to +10 is only the 66%. If I tried to go all the way from +0 to +10 in one shot I would probably blow it up. Good luck I have blown up a few myself, but I have some that went pretty high too(+7,+11) |
 Posts: 2315 Joined: 13 May 2005  | agree with Hemi, its a fixed 66% success chance and weapon type, toon lvl, place of enchant, star signs of enchanter etc. do not make a difference. what i do know is that l2wh does have an oe-tool that will give you a general figure about what you can expect if your trying to reach +9 or +11 on a weapon. but, like hemi said, you need to remember the statistical problem that each and every try on its own has a 34% failure chance and the longer you are able to enchant one weapon succesfully, the higher (statisticly) the chance of blowing up becomes. so going from +0 to +11 can take anything between 11 and 999999999999999999999 scrolls ;) what i do to try and "cheat luck" a bit is to buy the cheapest d-grade item (usualy jewels) and get myself a load of d-grade armor enchants and get at the same time my planed enchanting weapon + scrolls ready. then i overenchant the d-grade one until it blows. my next enchant right after blowing will be my weapon. on the oe try itself i will have a 34% chance of blowing it, but statisticly i get a better chance to succed. for realy high enchants i tend to blow up three or even four d-grade items, just for a better statistical chance. oh and if i dont break the d-grade item before +16 i can allways sell it for a lot of cash =) Lineage2: prepare to grind - like you've never grinded before |
 Posts: 484 Joined: 7 Aug 2006   | hemi kinda tuched on the best method, so heres my elaboration on that. "From rivers of sarrow, to oceans deep with hope,i have traveld them" Chuck S. R.I.P |
Site Manager  Posts: 4059 Joined: 6 Dec 2004   | All pure luck really. You have just as much chance of exploding an item after exploding 100 others as you do if you get the last 15 enchants fine. End of the day it's just a case of cross your fingers and click enchant really. Lineage 2 WarCry Site Manager |
Posts: 1808 Joined: 14 Feb 2005 | LOL, I like the advice on blowing up D grade items but not sure if it will improve my chances. However, I do have a friend who just started so it might make a nice present or cheap D-grade shots^^. I was wondering (I know there is no Guarantee) if I should get 10 SoVs and enchant them all +1->+2 ect.. and I'll have a good chance of one of them making it to +10. |
Posts: 484 Joined: 7 Aug 2006 | thats sorta what i was saying ^^ just on a smaller scale . cuz if u +5 1, thats the profit right there if u sell it, to buy 2 more and chant them. Kinda like a pyramid system where u have a descent chance of never doing worse then breaking even. "From rivers of sarrow, to oceans deep with hope,i have traveld them" Chuck S. R.I.P |
Posts: 2315 Joined: 13 May 2005 |
no, it wont improve your chance on this ONE try. what it does is give you a better STATISTICAL chance. each try looked at it alone has the 66% chance of success, but if you did break an item jest before this try, your chance will statisticly increase, since the odds of getting the same result twice are reduced. Lineage2: prepare to grind - like you've never grinded before |
Posts: 1808 Joined: 14 Feb 2005 |
Hmm... I C where U R coming from. Would the cummulative statistical chance apply to ME, the overenchanter, the cummulative chance of busting two in a row would be less. Or THE WEAPON the cummulative chance of a weapon being successfully enchanted 10 times in a row. Or both... Sorry if my ability to understance statitics is lacking. But U have given me some insight into this. |
Site Manager Posts: 4059 Joined: 6 Dec 2004 | Nothing you do gives you a better statistical chance. Each enchant is totally independant from the last, it doesn't matter if you've failed a million times in a row or succeeded a billion times in a row, you still have a flat 66% chance of success. Nothing you do beforehand will change that. Lineage 2 WarCry Site Manager |
Posts: 2315 Joined: 13 May 2005 |
Sorry to be pedantic but that is not entirely true. think of it as a more complicated example of flipping a coin. on each throw you have a 50% chance that either heads or tail will show up so if you look at each throw individualy you get a 50% chance of either heads or tail, but if you look at all throws that you perferm in a single session, the statistical chance of getting one or the other will change. of course, over the long run of many throws it will average out at 50% again. (or at least it should if you are using a "fair" coin). the same principle can be aplied to L2. the statistical chance of breaking two items in a row is lower than the chance to break one item. you are right in saying that one the single enchant itself, your chance stays at 66% no matter what you do. but you can improve your chance that it SHOULD work. the important part here is the should. yes, you can fail 100 overenchant attempts in a row, but if NCSofts calculation is working corectly the chance for failing in a row will decrease with each failed attempt. by this logic you can increase your overall chance of an oe attempt to succed by the willingness to invest money into cheap lower lvl items to break, so that your statistical succeschance on your desired item rises. however gain, it is no guarantie of success or gives you a better chance on your actual attempt. onlything it does is improve the chance that you should get "lucky"
the chance applies to you and not to your item. for this reason it is important that you enchant the cheap items in turn. e.g. you have two d-grade jewels (j1 and j2) and a homu (h1) start again with new jewels etc. Lineage2: prepare to grind - like you've never grinded before |
Posts: 1808 Joined: 14 Feb 2005 | Cool got it Gurag. Now what does pendantic mean? LOL |
Posts: 19 Joined: 29 May 2008 | overly concerned with minute details and i just noticed you joined the site on valentines day.. no time for the opposite sex? |
Posts: 1808 Joined: 14 Feb 2005 |
No, I just got interested in this topic. Initially I was hoping for someone to say like, "U SHOULD be able to make it to +10 if you buy 10 SoVs." Just so I can check how much cash I need so I don't run out before I get to +10 and to see if there was much profit in it. But thanks for your valuable input ;>
And no again, I'm just a typical guy who pays no heed to Hallmark holidays (just really unobservant, I didn't even notice until U pointed it out.0 Also, I live in The ROK where girls buy stuff for guys on Valentines Day^^ |
Site Manager Posts: 4059 Joined: 6 Dec 2004 |
So you're telling me if i flip a coin and get heads, the coin somehow remembers that and reduces my chance of getting heads again? That second throw you still have a 50% chance of getting heads. I think you're confusing relative probability with cumulative probability. For example If i flip a coin 10 times, every time I flip it there's still a 50% chance of it landing heads. The previous outcomes of the toss have no influence of the coin toss I'm about to make. However the odds of the coin landing heads 10 times in a row gets cumulatively worse with each flip. so it's 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.00098 so there's a 0.098% chance of flipping 10 heads in a row, however every individual flip is still 50/50. I did this crap as part of my degree, it's a common mistake to confuse relative and cumulative probabilities. Lineage 2 WarCry Site Manager |
Posts: 2315 Joined: 13 May 2005 |
thats pretty much what i tried to say all the time. each atempt on its own will have the same fixed chance for the outcome. its a bit difficult to explain if you cant use your native language :( Lineage2: prepare to grind - like you've never grinded before |
Site Manager Posts: 4059 Joined: 6 Dec 2004 | So still, each enchant has a 66% chance of success no matter what has happened previously. While there's a very small chance of succeeding 16 times in a row, each enchant on its own is 66%. Your enchant has the same success rate if you've blown up 10 items before you use the scroll, you're just amazingly unlucky if you do get 10 fails in a row. Literally nothing has an effect on the enchant you're about to do, cumulative probability has no bearing on your success rate, it just tells you what the chance of that combination of events occurring again is. I'm not trying to talk you out of going for 2-3 fails in a row then enchanting the item you WANT to succeed, it's as valid a method as any, but even if you have just had 10 fails in a row, you're no more likely to succeed than if you didn't do any of the previous enchants. It's a little like people playing birthdays / ages / etc on the lottery. The numbers they pick are just as likely as ANY other number to appear, whether they're special to you or if you chose them at random. An interesting note: I was called an idiot for trying to explain this principle to a friend of mine. I told him that picking the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 on the lottery gave him exactly as much chance of winning as if he picked his so called "lucky numbers" but he just didn't see why. Hell, I knew a person who timed his enchants by coin tosses. If the coin he flipped landed heads he'd go ahead with an enchant, if tails he'd leave it for a day. This also has no bearing, leaving it untill he flipped heads STILL gave the exact same chance of failing even if he'd flipped a million tails in a row. Lineage 2 WarCry Site Manager |
Moderator  Posts: 5518 Joined: 30 Jun 2004   | You know how hard it is to talk reason and science (mathematics in this case) to superstitious people, cheese.
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Posts: 19 Joined: 29 May 2008 | overly concerned with minute details is what pedantic means O_o ROK? |
Posts: 1808 Joined: 14 Feb 2005 |
oops Ahh! thanks ROK = the Republic of Korea (aka South Korea) as opposed to the DPRK (aka KimJong Ill's muderous playland) |
 Posts: 255 Joined: 14 Jun 2007 | I got a couple of Dark Screamers to +7 or +8 once... It was strange actually. What happened was, when I had a TH, I had a Dark screamer and got bored of the class. The DS was like, +3 or 4 at the time and I tried to sell it, and it wouldn't sell... I got pissed so I was like "screw this, I'm going to blow it up!" I got mad and bought a bunch of EWCs and enchanted it. I did it to blow it up since I knew my luck... Tried to +4 stuff a lot and it never really succeeded until now... Strangely, I was at the ivory tower trying to blow it up, and one after another, it'd succeed. It was so strange, because after that, I sold it and got excited with the cash and decided to over enchant something again, and when I did... BOOM! BBQWTF. It blew up. I didn't do anything after that until for some reason, I got another DS and pretty much the same thing happened. I got pissed, tried to blow it up and BAM, OEd to 8. Very strange... Very strange indeed. Both times I OEd a weapon was when I was furious and tried to break them and I believe I was in the ivory tower. Oh! almost forgot, I also got a +6 Doom Heavy Set this way too. WindHawk. SwordSinger of Gustin - level unknown... LII fan |
Posts: 489 Joined: 28 Jul 2004 |
Isn't this what most of us were saying from the beginning? And I will argue till we both die a painful death if YOU think cumulative probability has no bearing on the enchant success. Try that BS mind game in Vegas...call me when you need to borrow airfare to get home. And as far as "luck" goes...there is no such thing. Luck is someone inserting thier personal circumstances in place of "cumulative probability". I may not have the vocabulary to argue this, but I will bet you a million dollars(of course which I do not have)that you cannot flip a coin 10 times without hitting tails. Now if you have a 50/50 shot at it "each time"(which in theory, you do) there is no reason not to take the bet. But no one in their right mind would take that bet, because the odds are stacked against them. It is almost CERTAIN you would lose. Regardless of the fact that you have a 50/50 shot at it each time, it is not a 50/50 chance of overall success. Casino's are built on this. If anyone ever enchanted a weapon in L2 to 20 in one shot I would not hesitate to call them a liar, because there is only a 1 in 10000000000000000000000 chance that I am wrong, not 1 in 3. |
Site Manager Posts: 4059 Joined: 6 Dec 2004 | Hemi, let's consider this shall we then? there's a 66% chance of each enchant succeeding, yes? so cumulatively there is a 0.66^16 chance of getting a weapon to +16. By those odds there is a 0.1% chance of getting a weapon to +16. That's a one in a THOUSAND chance of it not exploding. Those odds are awful, that must mean nobody has ever got a weapon to +16 right? Well people have, so your argument fails right there. For exactly the same reason, it IS possible to flip a coin 10 times and not hit tails, it's a 0.5^10 chance of it occurring, so 0.09%. In fact that's almost the same chance as getting a weapon in L2 to +16. oh and "If anyone ever enchanted a weapon in L2 to 20 in one shot I would not hesitate to call them a liar, because there is only a 1 in 10000000000000000000000 chance that I am wrong, not 1 in 3." 0.66^20 = 0.002% is a 2 in 100,000 chance, so 1 in 50,000. But those statistics are AVERAGES. You could try to get a weapon to +16 and do it first time, or you could do it a thousand times and fail every one of them, that number just means if say a million attempts are made to get a weapon to +16, around 1000 will succceed. However statistics aren't right 100% of the time, the more you examine results, the closer they get to their defined chance. As I said, I'm doing this at degree level - i'll argue it all day because I know you're talking out of your ass. Lineage 2 WarCry Site Manager |
Posts: 2315 Joined: 13 May 2005 |
actualy mrcheese is right here. each enchant has the same probablitly. what the cumulative probability does is to improve the probablitity that you SHOULD get a certain outcome, in our case a succesfull overenchant. (i know very simplified, so please dont curzify me for it.) Also if Ivory Tower and being mad works best for your enchanting in L2, i suggest you continue with that method. it will not improve your chances but as long as you believe in it, its better than anyhting else thats on offer. Lineage2: prepare to grind - like you've never grinded before |
Site Manager Posts: 4059 Joined: 6 Dec 2004 | Thanks for simplifying what I was trying to say Gurag, i tend to ramble a little when i try to explain things. And as he said, if you find your enchants always work in you're eating an orange, your character is on exactly 12HP and wearing nothing but one ring on his left hand, then keep on going with it, in the end it's up to the individual if they choose to continue enchanting or not. Lineage 2 WarCry Site Manager |
Posts: 489 Joined: 28 Jul 2004 | What I find ridiculous is the fact that you make my case for me. I stated I do not have the vocabulary, but with your "degree level" education on the matter I would hope you could read through my exagerations to see my point. You state... "You could try to get a weapon to +16 and do it first time, or you could do it a thousand times and fail every one of them, that number just means if say a million attempts are made to get a weapon to +16, around 1000 will succceed."-That is pretty sh*tty odds if you ask me and nowhere near the known 64% that we all are familiar with. You also state "For exactly the same reason, it IS possible to flip a coin 10 times and not hit tails, it's a 0.5^10 chance of it occurring, so 0.09%. In fact that's almost the same chance as getting a weapon in L2 to +16."-Which again NOBODY in their right mind would take my million bet. I know it is POSSIBLE to enchant a weapon to +16( I have done it)but in one shot you are try to buck some serious odds You are saying what I am, just with a more informed vocabulary. We could argue Hydraulics and Theory of Pressure as it relates to Defensive Attacks on the fire ground and I'm sure you could present a decent argument. But you would be limited in your vocabulary on the subject. As your "degree level" education is not in that field. You also state I am talking out my ass, this seems unlikely as there are few red weapons in L2. Most came from the server maintenance exploit during Prelude/C1. If we are to believe the "straight 64%" all the way to 20 we should see about 2/3's(64 out of 100) of the weapons in L2 at max enchant. Obviously there is something else at work. Insulting someone is last defense of an idiot. You don't seem to be one, try not to prove me wrong. |
Posts: 489 Joined: 28 Jul 2004 | One more thing...out of the THOUSANDS(possibly 10's of thousands)of weapons enchanted in L2 how many are +16? I would guess a 100, maybe 200-300 at most on a given server. And most of these were not enchanted in "one shot". But yet you state..."Hemi, let's consider this shall we then? there's a 66% chance of each enchant succeeding, yes? so cumulatively there is a 0.66^16 chance of getting a weapon to +16. By those odds there is a 0.1% chance of getting a weapon to +16. That's a one in a THOUSAND chance of it not exploding. Those odds are awful, that must mean nobody has ever got a weapon to +16 right? Well people have, so your argument fails right there." How does my argument fail? 1-1000 is pretty good odds considering the amount of items enchanted overall. Thats like saying no one will ever win the lottery, but they do. Why? Because the number of tickets sold brings the odds into the "real world". Meaning If I play the lottery and the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 I most likely will never win. But if 1,000,000 people play it the odds of SOMEONE winning(not necessarily me) go up significantly. I don't understand why my argument fails. If you try to enchant a weapon to +16 in one shot your odds of failure go trhought the roof, but buying a weapon at +15 and enchanting it ONE time to hit +16 is a 64% chance. This whole time I have been stating the difference(with a limited vocabulary on the matter) and you make my point with the above qoute: "...cumulatively there is a 0.66^16 chance of getting a weapon to +16. By those odds there is a 0.1% chance of getting a weapon to +16. That's a one in a THOUSAND chance of it not exploding."...exactly. NOT a straight 64%. |
Site Manager Posts: 4059 Joined: 6 Dec 2004 | Hemi, you're either too stupid to get this or you're deliberately misunderstanding for the sake of causing arguments. Everyobdy else in the thread seems to have the idea except you, but you're sure you're right and making nothing but misinformed statements and trying to state that i'm making your point for you while simultaneously trying to refute the points i'm making, meaning you seem to think your own points are wrong. Thread is locked, Fancy feel free to start a new one and if this crap starts up again, instigators will be banned on the spot. Lineage 2 WarCry Site Manager |
Moderator Posts: 5518 Joined: 30 Jun 2004 | Woo! Go cheese!
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Are there any experienced OEers out there.
I am considering OE a top C (sword of eclips) or bottom B (SOV) to +12 or +9 respectively.
Can anyone give my a figure as to how many weapons and enchant scrolls I might need? Or if there are any good programs to calculate % success?
As far as I know there has always been debate on the equation for % success of OEing but I was just wondering from experience what other players feel would be reasonable.